Economics and Financial Markets Research

Research is at the core of our investment process. This page contains some of our work in empirical macroeconomics and finance.

Economics and Markets Research: Key Summary

Five years after the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-2009, the recovery of the global economy is proceeding, despite a weak first quarter in 2015. Over the past few months risks for global activity stemming from Greece and China have diminished, clearing the way for a gradual removal of accommodative monetary policy.

Global Outlook Pack

Macro Commentary

24 Mar 2017 By Andy Bevan & Elina Theodorakopoulou

CEEMEA Inflation Barometer: Flirting With Tightening?

Global economic growth is robust and headline inflation rates have picked up somewhat with the rebound in commodity prices over the past year.

14 Mar 2017 By Gavyn Davies

Fed tightening but no revival of the `Greenspan conundrum'

With the Federal Reserve likely to accelerate the pace of monetary tightening in coming months, investors are wondering whether the “Greenspan conundrum" will reassert itself.

06 Mar 2017 By Gavyn Davies

Why the Fed means business this time

Recent commentary by senior members of the FOMC, including by Janet Yellen herself, suggests that the Committee will probably raise US interest rates by 25 basis points in March.

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Research Papers

14 Oct 2015

Understanding the Turbulence in Financial Markets

Can modern macroeconometrics help?

25 Sep 2015

Following the Trend: Tracking GDP when long-run growth is uncertain

We document a significant decline in long-run GDP growth in the United States, the bulk of this slowdown occurred prior to the Great Recession.

25 Sep 2015

Multi Asset Alternative Beta

The authors analyse multi-asset trend, carry, and volatility returns, explaining why they exist, the benefits they confer to a traditional balanced portfolio, and the risks.

25 Sep 2015

Will Emerging Market Jitters Morph Into a Crisis?

A debate on Emerging Markets, with Gavyn Davies, Maurice Obstfeld, Alan Taylor and Dominic Wilson

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Gavyn Davies is a regular commentator in FT Online. To see all his blog posts click here