Five years after the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-2009, the recovery of the global economy is proceeding, despite a weak first quarter in 2015. Over the past few months risks for global activity stemming from Greece and China have diminished, clearing the way for a gradual removal of accommodative monetary policy.
Global economic growth is robust and headline inflation rates have picked up somewhat with the rebound in commodity prices over the past year.
With the Federal Reserve likely to accelerate the pace of monetary tightening in coming months, investors are wondering whether the “Greenspan conundrum" will reassert itself.
Recent commentary by senior members of the FOMC, including by Janet Yellen herself, suggests that the Committee will probably raise US interest rates by 25 basis points in March.
Can modern macroeconometrics help?
We document a significant decline in long-run GDP growth in the United States, the bulk of this slowdown occurred prior to the Great Recession.
The authors analyse multi-asset trend, carry, and volatility returns, explaining why they exist, the benefits they confer to a traditional balanced portfolio, and the risks.
A debate on Emerging Markets, with Gavyn Davies, Maurice Obstfeld, Alan Taylor and Dominic Wilson