Global economic growth is robust and headline inflation rates have picked up somewhat with the rebound in commodity prices over the past year.
With the Federal Reserve likely to accelerate the pace of monetary tightening in coming months, investors are wondering whether the “Greenspan conundrum" will reassert itself.
Recent commentary by senior members of the FOMC, including by Janet Yellen herself, suggests that the Committee will probably raise US interest rates by 25 basis points in March.
President Trump has an almost unique opportunity to reshape the personnel and legal underpinning of the Federal Reserve in the next 12 months.
The fixed income asset class has produced spectacular returns for the past three decades.
The financial markets have been driven by the “global reation" theme since mid 2016.
Investors are beginning to focus on the likelihood that the Republican reforms to the US corporate tax regime may well include so-called “border taxes" that will operate like a combination of import taxes and export subsidies.
Exactly a year ago, the markets were entering a melt-down because of fears of inappropriate Fed tightening and a sudden devaluation of the Chinese RMB.
Political shocks dominated 2016, with the UK vote to leave the EU in June and Donald Trump winning the US presidential election in November.
The latest Fulcrum nowcasts show the highest growth rates in global activity since 2011.
Sweden’s Riksbank has been in the vanguard of the central banks running unconventional monetary policy in recent years.
President-elect Trump made some very hawkish remarks about trade protection, especially against Mexico and China, in the election campaign.
The election of Donald Trump is a shock to global markets that could develop in several different directions.
As the US elections approach, the intellectual climate in America is undergoing a major change in the mainstream attitude towards fiscal policy.
Research on secular stagnation, and its effects on equilibrium real interest rates (r*) continues apace in the macro-economic community.
Corporate bond spreads have tightened significantly since the early part of the year, helped by more robust global economic growth, further policy easing and some recovery in the depressed energy sector.
The slope of the US yield curve has become significantly flatter since the middle of last year.
The Federal Reserve's approach to monetary policy is in a state of flux, and there could be important clues to the new consensus at the Fed's Jackson Hole meetings next week.
The regular monthly updates of Fulcrum's global nowcasts suggests that activity growth in the world economy has picked up considerably since the low point reached in March 2016.
Global bond yields fell to new lows in the first half of 2016. Bond valuations are very expensive.