Fulcrum Macro Commentary

21 Feb 2017 By Gavyn Davies

How will President Trump reshape the Fed?

President Trump has an almost unique opportunity to reshape the personnel and legal underpinning of the Federal Reserve in the next 12 months.

14 Feb 2017 By Andy Bevan & Elina Theodorakopoulou

All Aboard! Next Stop: Fixed Income Absolute Return

The fixed income asset class has produced spectacular returns for the past three decades.

08 Feb 2017 By Gavyn Davies

Monthly Report Card - Global reflation without higher inflation in 2017

The financial markets have been driven by the “global reation" theme since mid 2016.

17 Jan 2017 By Gavyn Davies

The worrying macro-economics of US border taxes

Investors are beginning to focus on the likelihood that the Republican reforms to the US corporate tax regime may well include so-called “border taxes" that will operate like a combination of import taxes and export subsidies.

10 Jan 2017 By Gavyn Davies

China and the Fed: how different this time?

Exactly a year ago, the markets were entering a melt-down because of fears of inappropriate Fed tightening and a sudden devaluation of the Chinese RMB.

05 Jan 2017 By Andy Bevan & Elina Theodorakopoulou

Global Fixed Income Annual Review 2016 and Strategy Outlook 2017

Political shocks dominated 2016, with the UK vote to leave the EU in June and Donald Trump winning the US presidential election in November.

07 Dec 2016 By Gavyn Davies

Rebound and reflation in the global economy

The latest Fulcrum nowcasts show the highest growth rates in global activity since 2011.

29 Nov 2016 By Andy Bevan & Elina Theodorakopoulou

Is Sweden an Accident Waiting to Happen?

Sweden’s Riksbank has been in the vanguard of the central banks running unconventional monetary policy in recent years.

29 Nov 2016 By Gavyn Davies

Is Trump really serious about protection? by Gavyn

President-elect Trump made some very hawkish remarks about trade protection, especially against Mexico and China, in the election campaign.

15 Nov 2016 By Gavyn Davies

Trump and the markets: good, bad or (very) ugly?

The election of Donald Trump is a shock to global markets that could develop in several different directions.

07 Nov 2016 By Gavyn Davies

New fiscal theory and the US election

As the US elections approach, the intellectual climate in America is undergoing a major change in the mainstream attitude towards fiscal policy.

24 Oct 2016 By Gavyn Davies

It's the demography, stupid!

Research on secular stagnation, and its effects on equilibrium real interest rates (r*) continues apace in the macro-economic community.

19 Oct 2016 By Andy Bevan and Elina Theodorakopoulou

Leverage or Restructuring? No Revival of Corporate ‘Animal Spirits’

Corporate bond spreads have tightened significantly since the early part of the year, helped by more robust global economic growth, further policy easing and some recovery in the depressed energy sector.

07 Sep 2016 By Andy Bevan and Elina Theodorakopoulou

Is Yield Curve Flattening Coming to an End?

The slope of the US yield curve has become significantly flatter since the middle of last year.

17 Aug 2016 By Gavyn Davies

What caused the Fed's dovish turn

The Federal Reserve's approach to monetary policy is in a state of flux, and there could be important clues to the new consensus at the Fed's Jackson Hole meetings next week.

02 Aug 2016 By Gavyn Davies

Has the global economy (finally) achieved escape velocity?

The regular monthly updates of Fulcrum's global nowcasts suggests that activity growth in the world economy has picked up considerably since the low point reached in March 2016.

27 Jul 2016 By Andy Bevan and Elina Theodorakopoulou

Where Next for Global Bonds?

Global bond yields fell to new lows in the first half of 2016. Bond valuations are very expensive.

26 Jul 2016 By Gavyn Davies

Regime changes in the global financial markets

There have been two major regimes operating in the global economy and asset markets in recent years: quantitative easing dominance, from 2012 to May 2015; and deflation dominance from June 2015 to the present.

12 Jul 2016 By Gavyn Davies

The German balance of payments quandary

Germany's surplus on the current account of the balance of payments surged to a record level last year, reaching $285 billion, or 8.5 per cent of GDP.

14 Jun 2016 By Gavyn Davies

Why hasnt the productivity crisis caused a bear market (yet)

Productivity growth has slowed sharply, both in the advanced economies and the emerging markets, in the past decade.

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