UK nowcasts point to imminent recession but labour market remains a bright spot

 

The latest nowcasts for the UK suggest that activity growth in the economy is already negative and predict that gross domestic product growth in both 2019 Q3 and Q4 will be below zero . . .

Business surveys suggest that the industrial sector has weakened as capital investment has been curtailed. More recently, some survey data in the distributive trades sector have also fallen . . .

So far, employment growth in the official data has remained firm and unemployment has remained very subdued. However, forward-looking survey indicators of companies’ hiring intentions have dipped, and this could presage a weaker labour market if business confidence slides further around the possible Brexit date on October 31 . . .


Source: This note is based on material which appeared in an article by Gavyn Davies published in the Financial Times on 5 July 2019.
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