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Deeper Dive: Strains in the Fifth Republic

As at 21 June 2024

In the second episode of Fulcrum’s new series “Deeper Dives”, Gavyn Davies, Executive Chairman and Co-founder and Andy Bevan, Partner and Economic Advisor drill down into:

  • The upcoming elections in France have the potential to significantly impact markets and test EU structures
  • The political landscape in France is uncertain, with the possibility of a minority right-wing administration and a strong far-right presence
  • Fiscal policy and debt sustainability are key concerns, with both the left and right proposing large fiscal injections
  • The need for coherence in fiscal policy across the EU and the response of the European Central Bank are important factors to consider
  • The high level of uncertainty implies some further upside risk for French bond spreads in the near-term
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