Research-led Investing

Research is at the heart of what we do. Publishing research ensures the discipline, rigour and a philosophy of constant improvement that is required to deliver attractive risk-adjusted returns for our investors.

Research Notes

Our macroeconomic insights from the investment team in downloadable pdf format

Gavyn Davies’ blog – The changing of the guard at the Fed

Gavyn Davies’ blog – The changing of the guard at the Fed

December 5, 2017
It is now widely recognised that President...
Gavyn Davies’ blog – BoJ hints at normalisation, with Japanese characteristics

Gavyn Davies’ blog – BoJ hints at normalisation, with Japanese characteristics

November 28, 2017
The five year term of Bank of...
Gavyn Davies’ blog – US productivity may not be that bad, after all

Gavyn Davies’ blog – US productivity may not be that bad, after all

November 14, 2017
Bad news about US productivity growth has...
Fulcrum Research – Let the Credit Hunger Games Begin!

Fulcrum Research – Let the Credit Hunger Games Begin!

November 13, 2017
Corporate bond spreads have tightened further this...
Gavyn Davies’ blog – Does China’s new policy regime threaten the global upswing?

Gavyn Davies’ blog – Does China’s new policy regime threaten the global upswing?

November 7, 2017
The strength of the upswing – almost...
The (non) disappearing Phillips Curve – the evidence

The (non) disappearing Phillips Curve – the evidence

October 31, 2017
Last week, I made two points about...
Gavyn Davies’ blog – The (non) disappearing Phillips Curve: why it matters

Gavyn Davies’ blog – The (non) disappearing Phillips Curve: why it matters

October 24, 2017
The existence, and recent disappearance, of the...
Gavyn Davies’ blog – World economy may be healthier than the IMF thinks

Gavyn Davies’ blog – World economy may be healthier than the IMF thinks

October 17, 2017
Richard Thaler, whose richly deserved Nobel Prize...
Gavyn Davies’ blog – Doves and hawks in the race for Fed Chair

Gavyn Davies’ blog – Doves and hawks in the race for Fed Chair

October 10, 2017
On a trip to Washington last week,...
Winter is Coming: Turn Up the Central Bank Heat!

Winter is Coming: Turn Up the Central Bank Heat!

October 9, 2017
Government bond 10-year yields in the major...
Gavyn Davies’ blog – Trump’s fiscal stimulus, 2.0

Gavyn Davies’ blog – Trump’s fiscal stimulus, 2.0

October 3, 2017
US fiscal policy has been back in...

Research Papers

Fulcrum's whitepaper research, offering detailed and extensive research from our macroeconomic team

Trend, Crises and the Cost of Protection

Trend, Crises and the Cost of Protection

November 8, 2017
Trend-following strategies are widely recognised for providing...