Research-led Investing

Research is at the heart of what we do. Publishing research ensures the discipline, rigour and a philosophy of constant improvement that is required to deliver attractive risk-adjusted returns for our investors.

Research Notes

Our macroeconomic insights from the investment team in downloadable pdf format

Half-Year to Go: Beach-Ready Bond Workout!

Half-Year to Go: Beach-Ready Bond Workout!

July 25, 2017
Yields on benchmark 10-year government bonds in...
Have they really fixed financial instability?

Have they really fixed financial instability?

July 23, 2017
After the Great Financial Crash, the central...
Higher Yielding Emerging Markets: Missed the Boat?

Higher Yielding Emerging Markets: Missed the Boat?

June 28, 2017
The recovery of commodity prices last year...
Structural Drop in Treasury Demand: Any Buyers Out There?

Structural Drop in Treasury Demand: Any Buyers Out There?

May 17, 2017
As the Fed continues gradually to normalize...
The consequences of shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet

The consequences of shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet

May 16, 2017
The Federal Reserve is now actively considering...
Is US productivity (finally) perking up?

Is US productivity (finally) perking up?

May 4, 2017
The slowdown in productivity growth in the...
Global Surveys or Hard Data – Which are the Fake News?

Global Surveys or Hard Data – Which are the Fake News?

April 4, 2017
The Fulcrum global nowcasts continue to report...
Fed tightening but no revival of the ‘Greenspan conundrum’

Fed tightening but no revival of the ‘Greenspan conundrum’

March 14, 2017
With the Federal Reserve likely to accelerate...
Why the Fed means business this time

Why the Fed means business this time

March 7, 2017
Recent commentary by senior members of the...
How will President Trump reshape the Fed?

How will President Trump reshape the Fed?

February 21, 2017
President Trump has an almost unique opportunity...
All Aboard! Next stop Fixed Income Absolute Return

All Aboard! Next stop Fixed Income Absolute Return

February 14, 2017
The fixed income asset class has produced...
Monthly Report Card – Global Reflation without Higher Inflation in 2017

Monthly Report Card – Global Reflation without Higher Inflation in 2017

February 8, 2017
The financial markets have been driven by...

Research Papers

Fulcrum's whitepaper research, offering detailed and extensive research from our macroeconomic team

The Alternative View – How Fast Should We Measure Volatility?

The Alternative View – How Fast Should We Measure Volatility?

April 25, 2017
A common theme across systematic strategies is...
The Alternative View: Trend Following – One speed to rule them all

The Alternative View: Trend Following – One speed to rule them all

November 26, 2016
In recent years, we have seen a...
The Alternative View: Observations & prospects for carry strategies

The Alternative View: Observations & prospects for carry strategies

October 19, 2016
The compression of investment returns has posed...
Don’t Bet the Ranch: Hit Ratios, Asymmetry and Breadth

Don’t Bet the Ranch: Hit Ratios, Asymmetry and Breadth

November 27, 2015
This paper discusses our framework for assessing...
Multi-Asset Alternative Beta

Multi-Asset Alternative Beta

March 2, 2015
Alternative beta refers to risk factors that...
The Past and the Future for Trend Investing; Extracting Information from Momentum Returns

The Past and the Future for Trend Investing; Extracting Information from Momentum Returns

February 5, 2014
The recent sub-par performance of momentum strategies...