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Macro Foundations

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Chairman’s Views

What’s New

The Rising Importance of Financial Conditions for Fed Policy

Read our Executive Chairman, Gavyn Davies’ current market views as at 22 November 2023:

  • Global asset markets have increased the probability attached to a soft landing
  • This has been triggered by three main factors
  • We examine in detail the pros and cons of using such indices
  • We do not expect any change in the policy rate in December, or in “high for longer” guidance
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Chairman’s Views
Views & Research

What’s New

October 2023 wrap-up: markets remain weak as bond yields rise further

The month of October saw continued weakness in global fixed income and equity markets as US bond yields set fresh 16-year highs. This occurred amid persistent economic strength in the US, with GDP expanding by 4.9% (QoQ, Annualised) in Q3, the fastest pace since the end of 2021.

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Views & Research
News

What’s New

Fulcrum Asset Management named to Newsweek’s list of the Top 100 Most Loved Workplaces for 2023

Newsweek announced their annual rankings for the Top 100 Most Loved Workplaces® list, and Fulcrum was ranked # 78th in The 2023 Top 100 Most Loved Workplaces.®

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News

Views & Research

Chairman’s Views

22/11/2023

The Rising Importance of Financial Conditions for Fed Policy

The latest Chairman’s Views discusses how the global asset markets have increased the probability attached to a soft landing, at least in the US, over the past month.
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Chairman’s Views

13/11/2023

US Recession Risks – The Fulcrum and Sahm Models

The latest Chairman’s Views discusses how Fulcrum continues to place a great deal of weight on its nowcast models which continue to provide part of the academic and practical foundation for many subsequent models in the markets and central banks.
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Macro Insights

01/11/2023

October 2023 wrap-up: markets remain weak as bond yields rise further

The month of October saw continued weakness in global fixed income and equity markets as US bond yields set fresh 16-year highs.
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Videos & Podcasts

Macro Matters

US recession risks – the Fulcrum and Sahm models

In this video, Gavyn Davies & Andy Bevan discuss what Fulcrum’s nowcasting is telling us in terms of recession risk and the relevance of the Sahm rule in the current environment.

Macro Matters

Why did Powell change his guidance?

In this recent video Gavyn Davies & Andy Bevan discuss what major factors were in Powell's recent thinking and the impact of recent geopolitical risks on financial markets.

Investment Outlook

Investment Update Q3 2023

In this video, Helen Roughsedge, Investment Director discuss the characteristics of markets in the Q3 and how Fulcrum has performed in this environment.

Macro Matters

Term Premium and What the Fed Thinks About It

In this recent video Gavyn Davies & Andy Bevan discuss the term premium and the likelihood of a rate rise in the coming months.

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Chart of the Week

Chart as at 13 November 2023

Nowcasting in 2023: A Retrospective

Source: Fulcrum Asset Management, Consensus Economics

The year 2022 saw a sequence of contractionary shocks hit the global economy. Initially, these took the form of destabilising supply disruptions across global energy and agricultural markets induced by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Alongside this, the Federal Reserve, joined by most other major central banks, embarked on the fastest pace of interest-rate hikes since the 1980s. Given this backdrop, at the beginning of 2023 economists saw a 61% chance of an impending US recession.
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A career with us

Fulcrum offers exciting opportunities for talented people looking for professional development and career growth, no matter what stage you are at in your working life. Our commitment to diversity and inclusion creates a welcoming and supportive environment where employees from a variety of backgrounds can bring their unique perspectives and experiences to the table.

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About Fulcrum

Founded in 2004, we are a global, independent asset manager investing across all major asset classes and geographies. Ultimately, our aim is to deliver on our clients’ investment objectives, providing a range of innovative solutions that put macroeconomic research at the heart. We are not only disciplined by economic theory and empirical evidence, but also stringent risk management which is a vital component of our success.

Our focus is on uncovering investment opportunities wherever they are; our unconstrained investment universe provides the flexibility to implement what we observe as being the best investment strategies. 

AUM £6.4bn (7.8$bn) as at 31 October 2023     

Diversification 

is not a constant; 

it is a function 

of the macro 

environment

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