Insights

Views & Research

Videos & Podcasts

Views & Research

Chairman’s Views

Macro Insights

Research

Thought Leadership

Chairman’s Views

22/11/2023

The Rising Importance of Financial Conditions for Fed Policy

The latest Chairman's Views discusses how the global asset markets have increased the probability attached to a soft landing, at least in the US, over the past month.

Chairman’s Views

13/11/2023

US Recession Risks – The Fulcrum and Sahm Models

The latest Chairman's Views discusses how Fulcrum continues to place a great deal of weight on its nowcast models which continue to provide part of the academic and practical foundation for many subsequent models in the markets and central banks.

Macro Insights

01/11/2023

October 2023 wrap-up: markets remain weak as bond yields rise further

The month of October saw continued weakness in global fixed income and equity markets as US bond yields set fresh 16-year highs.

Chairman’s Views

24/10/2023

Why Did Powell Change His Guidance?

Markets have recently been navigating significant changes in news flow, involving geopolitical risks and important developments regarding US growth and core inflation data.

Chairman’s Views

11/10/2023

The Fed’s Latest Thinking on R* and the Term Premium

While Powell’s remarks remain the benchmark speech on the bond debacle, there have been new interpretations that complicate the picture in recent days.

Macro Insights

01/10/2023

September 2023 Wrap-up: Bond sell-off accelerates as Fed ponders higher rates

September saw a continuation of recent market trends, with the US 10-year Treasury yield hitting its highest level since August 2007.

Chairman’s Views

27/09/2023

What Powell Said and What It Means for Markets

Following the FOMC meeting on 20 September, market commentary has mostly concluded that Powell’s main message was "higher for longer" on Fed policy rates. We think that is indeed the right interpretation, though most of his emphasis was on the word "longer", not "higher".

Thought Leadership

14/09/2023

Investors in the UK and US show mixed feelings on investment outlook over next 12 months

Fulcrum Asset Management has released new research comparing views from professional investors on both sides of the Atlantic on the macroeconomic outlook and how these views play into investment decisions.

Research

11/09/2023

Carbon-Transition Risk and Net-Zero Portfolios

Net-zero portfolios (NZP), which aim to reduce carbon footprint exposure to zero by a target date, are becoming a popular vehicle to align investors’ incentives with climate scenarios.

Research

07/09/2023

US Interest Rate Surprises and Currency Returns

Currencies that are more exposed to US monetary policy yield positive average excess returns.

Chairman’s Views

06/09/2023

Rise in Real Yields Dominates Markets in August

A look at the rise in real yields dominating markets in August and the 3 possible landings.

Macro Insights

04/09/2023

August 2023 Wrap-up: Global bond sell-off dents valuations

The month of August saw US long-term interest rates hit a 16-year high, which exerted downward pressure on asset valuations globally.

Thought Leadership

01/09/2023

Dynamic allocation is vital in times of macroeconomic uncertainty

This article looks at how Fulcrum maintains an investment approach that is diversified across strategies; reducing portfolio risk and improving investment outcomes.

Thought Leadership

17/08/2023

Well over half of US advisors poised to boost allocations to global macro strategies

More than half of US registered investment advisors and wealth managers plan to boost client allocations to global macro over the next 12 months.

Chairman’s Views

17/08/2023

Yellen Reforms and GDPNow Raise US growth optimism

The Atlanta Fed’s “GDPNow” estimate for Q3 currently shows growth at about 5.8% for the quarter. Should we pay attention to this number?

Macro Insights

03/08/2023

July 2023 Wrap-up: Improving Market Sentiment Lifts Equities and Commodities

Market sentiment continued to improve in July as US inflation continued to decelerate.

Chairman’s Views

26/07/2023

Advanced Economies Slowing?

Ahead of the major central bank meetings due on July 26-28; this review looks at the various macroeconomic factors which may impact the next set of policy decisions to be made around the world.

Thought Leadership

20/07/2023

Nearly two-thirds of professional investors say macro investing now more relevant

Nearly two thirds of professional investors surveyed (64%) say macro investing has become more relevant, given the significant financial market turmoil of the past few years.

Chairman’s Views

19/07/2023

North Atlantic Drift

A look at the increasingly convincing signs of declining inflation in the US which signals a declining risk of recession and a soft landing for the overall economy.

Chairman’s Views

13/07/2023

Renewed Bond Sell-Off Driven by Continued Strength in US Labour Market

A look at the recent sell-off in government bond markets.

Chairman’s Views

06/07/2023

New Fed Research Suggests That US Economic Slowdown is Likely in 2023 H2

Recent research from the Fed suggests that the boost to the economy from declining excess savings will probably run out of steam by the end of 2023, if it has not done so already.

Thought Leadership

03/07/2023

Has there been enough consolidation in the pensions industry?

The Australian pensions market is often cited as a paragon of excellence to follow, and we take a closer look at the extent to which this trend should continue and why.

Thought Leadership

03/07/2023

How much cash should a long-term portfolio hold?

During times of heightened market volatility and rising interest rates, cash tends to have far greater appeal. However, a diversified absolute return fund should provide a more nuanced and thoughtful option, with the potential for a stronger long-term risk-reward profile.

Chairman’s Views

28/06/2023

Equities in 2023-A Tougher Second Half, Especially in the EU?

Economic conditions seem less favourable for equity gains than they were in the first half of 2023, but a renewed bear market is not yet signaled.

Chairman’s Views

22/06/2023

Fiscal and Monetary Policy Regimes After the Pandemic

The central banks are likely to retain their official 2% targets but interpret them in a very liberal manner to avoid deep recessions.

Thought Leadership

15/06/2023

Is a Global Recession likely in 2023?

Many major economies are still contending with rising interest rates, which operate with a lag. It is not yet clear how far through the process of adjustment they are.

Chairman’s Views

07/06/2023

Markets Remain in a Supply-Friendly Regime

Our Chairman, Gavyn Davies shares his current market views as at 7 June 2023 as well as the potential impact of the latest macro themes.

Thought Leadership

30/05/2023

Why scope-free emissions don’t stack up

Looking how Scope 3 emissions are qualitatively different from Scope 1 and 2 – they are best seen as a measure of carbon risk.

Thought Leadership

19/05/2023

Proxy Battles

We provide an update on some of our recent votes and engagements during 2023.

Thought Leadership

14/03/2023

Adjusting the resolution: reflections on the 2022 proxy season

Having recently renewed our accreditation as a signatory to the Stewardship Code, we share our reflection on the past year’s proxy season and the evolution of our voting approach.

Thought Leadership

02/02/2023

Buying is good, building is better

Exploring why contributing new capital and improving assets is crucial to meet Net Zero and sustainability goals.

Thought Leadership

17/01/2023

A new world: private market innovation for DC

We recently conducted a poll on LinkedIn surveying whether DC savers should pay performance fees. The outcome was very close with 53% of participants saying yes and 47% saying no (114 votes in total).

Thought Leadership

21/11/2022

Sustainability: Now, Never or When?

An exploration of the relevance of ESG risk and opportunities to financial outcomes over time

Thought Leadership

20/10/2022

The role of short-selling

Short-selling is an effective tool that can improve investors’ impact on the world and amplify the effect of increased cost of capital.

Thought Leadership

29/09/2022

60/40 no longer suitable according to professional investors

40% of professional investors believe the traditional 60/40 portfolio is no longer suitable, according to a survey of professional investors by Fulcrum Asset Management. A further 24% believed that the strategy “needs to be reviewed”, while in contrast 36% believed it still had a strong future.

Thought Leadership

29/09/2022

Sustainability integration important to overwhelming majority of investors

To coincide with Good Money Week, 3-7 October 2022, Fulcrum Asset Management asked professional investors their views on how important it was that sustainability is integrated into the overall investment process, as part of their asset allocation selection criteria.

Thought Leadership

24/09/2022

Stars aligning for portfolio alignment

We reflect on some of the latest developments in a new and fast-evolving area of finance and our role in working with the industry to promote sustainable markets.

Thought Leadership

29/08/2022

Markets riskiest since quantitative easing say investors

Nearly four in ten professional investors (38%) believe that the current level of risk in markets high with 23% stating ‘somewhat high’ and 15% very high, according to a survey carried out on behalf of Fulcrum Asset Management.

Thought Leadership

25/08/2022

Investors look to absolute return for diversification

Over seven in ten investors (72%) say they are inclined to consider Absolute Return funds as part of their overall asset allocation, given the market conditions observed so far in 2022 and the increased correlation between the traditional asset classes of equities and fixed income.

Thought Leadership

23/05/2022

Proxy Preview: Fulcrum’s votes at key AGMs this season

As the voting season is underway, scrutiny of company strategies and investor stances continues to rise. We discuss Fulcrum’s overall approach, highlighting key votes and engagements PR

Thought Leadership

09/05/2022

The carbon half-time show

For the past eight decades, studying the speed with which radioactive carbon naturally halves has transformed our vision of the remote past. Now, it is the speed with which man-made carbon emissions can be halved that will increasingly define our vision of the proximate future.

Macro Insights

25/04/2022

Global markets driven by a huge real monetary shock

Global markets have been hit by a series of large shocks in 2022 – higher commodity prices triggered by the war in Ukraine, Covid lockdowns in China, inflation from the post-pandemic recovery in the advanced economy, and a sudden tightening in real monetary policy, especially in the US.

Thought Leadership

19/04/2022

Performance Fees in DC – The Agency Problem

We recently conducted a poll on LinkedIn surveying whether DC savers should pay performance fees. The outcome was very close with 53% of participants saying yes and 47% saying no (114 votes in total).

Macro Insights

30/03/2022

Has the Fed abandoned its average inflation target?

This article argues that the Federal Reserve seems to have downgraded or even abandoned the new framework for monetary policy that was announced by the FOMC in August 2020. They have not yet replaced this framework with a comprehensive new approach, leaving the future course for monetary policy far less predictable than before.

Thought Leadership

10/03/2022

A Midas touch for mid-caps?

The ESG for Investors platform’s engagement maximiser leverages academic research to identify ‘ESG upside’ - potential share price improvements from companies bringing environmental, social and governance performance in line with top-rated peers.

Thought Leadership

21/02/2022

The tracking error error: why climate alignment calls for bolder steps

If climate change represents a major investment risk, should investors seek minimal deviations from a misaligned market? We explore the trade-offs between tracking error, forward- and backward-looking climate metrics in the context of portfolio alignment.

Thought Leadership

17/02/2022

Low temperature and low regret? The trade-offs and opportunities when bringing climate change factors into a risk-return framework

What is the cost of ‘turning down the heat’ in a portfolio? We illustrate how investors can leverage free-to-use climate optimiser tools to understand both trade-offs and opportunities for action

Macro Insights

31/01/2022

Fiscal Policy, Inflation and the Federal Reserve

This article is an essay on the various schools of thought that have developed among macro-economists on these crucial issues.

Thought Leadership

24/01/2022

Counting down carbon: Higher share prices through lower emissions

Why carbon re-rating is already happening, and how companies can take advantage.

Macro Insights

06/01/2022

The pandemic has marked a turning point for asset markets

This article is an essay on the various schools of thought that have developed among macro-economists on these crucial issues.

Thought Leadership

07/12/2021

Using ESG data for real-world impact

How the launch of an innovative new ESG data platform can help investors strengthen their engagements and optimise their portfolios for real-world impact.

Thought Leadership

25/11/2021

Ready, Set, Glasgow: What does the COP26 climate conference mean for investors?

As COP26 sets out the direction of travel towards a low-carbon economy, we consider the risks and opportunities.

Thought Leadership

19/11/2021

‘The Great Reversal’ – Is it upon us?

The ‘Great Reversal’ signifies the moment when the seemingly unstoppable decline in bond yields suddenly reverses and they start rising instead (Fulcrum)

Thought Leadership

08/03/2021

Addressing the ESG Conundrum in a Reflationary Scenario

During our daily scan of the financial news recently we noticed the clever (or coincidental) juxtaposition of two stories.

Thought Leadership

26/02/2021

Global Government Bond Sell-Off: It’s for Real!

The upward move in global government yields over recent months is largely benign.

Macro Insights

11/01/2021

Bitcoin has ambitions for gold’s role

Investors in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have enjoyed a phenomenal run, but they are now worried that Janet Yellen’s arrival as US Treasury secretary may herald a new era of hostility from regulators and central banks towards what boosters call “libertarian” forms of digital money.

Research

01/01/2021

Currency Mispricing and Dealer Balance Sheets

Currency Mispricing and Dealer Balance Sheets, joint with Pasquale Della Corte (Imperial College Business School) and Tianyu Wang (Tsinghua University), has now been accepted for publication in the Journal of Finance.

Research

01/01/2021

Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Portfolio Choice of International Mutual Funds

Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Portfolio Choice of International Mutual Funds, joint with Ilaf Elard (New York University Shanghai), has now been accepted for publication in the Journal of International Money and Finance.

Macro Insights

18/12/2020

The risks of the global Covid debt bridge

Early in the Covid-19 pandemic, it became clear that the global economy would require a massive extension of public and private debt to avoid an extraordinarily deep and persistent depression.

Macro Insights

15/12/2020

As Covid optimism grows, investors seek to hedge against inflation risk

The global reflation trade means a change of strategy on portfolio protection.

Thought Leadership

11/12/2020

Strategy Cycles, Mania and the Lessons for ESG Funds

We hosted a webinar discussing the concept of Strategy Cycles in more detail on 2 December 2020.

Macro Insights

16/11/2020

Democracies that failed the Covid test will struggle on climate change

The second wave of the pandemic continues to gather pace in Europe and the United States, but the optimistic news about vaccines has trumped these worries in the minds of investors.

Macro Insights

06/10/2020

Global goods sector drives economic recovery

Markets are reflecting sectoral shifts in the world economy as services lag behind manufacturing

Macro Insights

22/09/2020

Expect long-term economic scarring from Covid-19

Forecasts for GDP growth look optimistic, but the risks of permanent losses are worrying.

Thought Leadership

15/09/2020

Is it possible to build a Fund of Hedge Fund portfolio that delivers?

The Alternative Strategies Team at Fulcrum have been managing Fund of Hedge Funds (FoHFs) since 2004, and during that time we have been thinking deeply and working hard to navigate the changing marketplace for active management in its purest form: hedge funds.

Macro Insights

09/09/2020

The Fed risks higher inflation to boost jobs

The US central bank’s new monetary framework takes policy back to the 1960s

Thought Leadership

10/08/2020

Designing a UK DC Default Fund – The choice of active vs passive across asset classes

Passive seems to be the preferred choice, but why and is this right?

Macro Insights

20/07/2020

US Covid-19 surge could trigger a double-dip recession

Markets are ignoring the possibility that severe lockdowns may be needed in many states.

Macro Insights

14/07/2020

Central banks expand their role to address the crisis

Far from being impotent, they have again been crucial actors in the pandemic.

Macro Insights

24/06/2020

The safe-asset shortage after Covid-19

Demand has outstripped supply since 2009 but the latest crisis may help to redress the balance.

Macro Insights

23/06/2020

Will public debt be a problem when the Covid-19 crisis is over?

There is unanimity about macroeconomic policy for now, but not about an exit strategy.

Macro Insights

06/06/2020

The effects of Covid-19 could deepen secular stagnation

Monetary policy as we know it has become redundant. Central banks’ golden era is probably over.

Macro Insights

26/05/2020

Penny-pinching consumers could spell trouble for recovery

US savings rates are pushing towards record highs.

Research

03/04/2019

OTC Premia Paper

Using unique data at transaction and identity levels, we provide the first systematic study of interest rate swaps traded over the counter (OTC).

Research

01/10/2018

Narrative Sign Restrictions for SVARs

We identify structural vector autoregressions using narrative sign restrictions. Narrative sign restrictions constrain the structural shocks and/or the historical decomposition around key historical events, ensuring that they agree with the established narrative account of these episodes.

Macro Insights

27/07/2018

Investing in an era of Normalisation

The Discretionary View: Investing in an era of Normalisation.

Research

01/05/2017

Tracking the Slowdown in Long-Run GDP growth

Using a dynamic factor model that allows for changes in both the long-run growth rate of output and the volatility of business cycles, we document a significant decline in long-run output growth in the United States.

Videos & Podcasts

Investment Outlook

Macro Matters

Macro Matters

US recession risks – the Fulcrum and Sahm models

In this video, Gavyn Davies & Andy Bevan discuss what Fulcrum’s nowcasting is telling us in terms of recession risk and the relevance of the Sahm rule in the current environment.

Macro Matters

Why did Powell change his guidance?

In this recent video Gavyn Davies & Andy Bevan discuss what major factors were in Powell's recent thinking and the impact of recent geopolitical risks on financial markets.

Investment Outlook

Investment Update Q3 2023

In this video, Helen Roughsedge, Investment Director discuss the characteristics of markets in the Q3 and how Fulcrum has performed in this environment.

Macro Matters

Term Premium and What the Fed Thinks About It

In this recent video Gavyn Davies & Andy Bevan discuss the term premium and the likelihood of a rate rise in the coming months.

Macro Matters

Hymans Robertson Podcast – Capital markets mid-year update

Gavyn Davies joins Hymans Robertson On... Podcast Investment series with a Capital markets mid-year update.

Investment Outlook

Investment Update H1 2023

In this video, Nabeel Abdoula, Deputy Chief Investment Officer discusses Fulcrum's approach to asset allocation in H1 2023 as well as the outlook for the remainder of this year.

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Charts

13 November 2023

Nowcasting in 2023: A Retrospective

9 October 2023

Divergence in Value and Equal Weighted Equities

15 September 2023

New Fed Measure Supports Strong US Growth Outlook

18 August 2023

House price trends since the pandemic

4 August 2023

US Long-Term Yields Surge Higher

13 July 2023

Bank of Japan’s Dilemma

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News

23/10/2023

Fulcrum bats for diversity with cricket sponsorship

Fulcrum was delighted to attend a lunch this month to celebrate the end of the cricket season – its first season as sponsors of Middlesex Girls, the Sunrisers and Middlesex Cricket’s new charitable arm, Middlesex in the Community.

04/10/2023

Fulcrum Asset Management named to Newsweek’s list of the Top 100 Most Loved Workplaces for 2023

Newsweek announced their annual rankings for the Top 100 Most Loved Workplaces® list, and Fulcrum was ranked # 78th in The 2023 Top 100 Most Loved Workplaces.®

21/09/2023

Federal Reserve Bank of NY incorporates Fulcrum Asset Management insights in its revitalized growth forecast

Federal Reserve Bank of New York economists gave the econometric version of a shoutout to Fulcrum Asset Management when they unveiled a revamped version of the bank’s real time GDP “nowcasting” model, Fulcrum announced today.

27/07/2023

Fulcrum Asset Management announces senior hires to investment team

Fulcrum announces two senior appointments, Stephen Hull and Helen Roughsedge, to its investment team as it continues to grow its business.

14/06/2023

Fulcrum taps veteran business development executive to cover North American institutional market

Christopher Carroll joins UK based fund manager’s New York office

13/06/2023

Two strategic advisers added to Fulcrum’s Alternative Solutions team

We recently added two new appointees to our Alternative Solutions strategic adviser panel.

26/04/2023

Fulcrum bats for diversity announcing major sponsorship with Middlesex Cricket

Fulcrum is delighted to announce it has signed a three-year agreement to sponsor Middlesex Women, Middlesex Girls, the Sunrisers and Middlesex Cricket’s new charitable arm, Middlesex in the Community.

02/03/2023

Fulcrum wins best ESG Investment Fund (Climate-Alignment) at 2023 ESG Investing Awards

Fulcrum is delighted to announce that its climate change fund has won the Best ESG Investment Fund, in the Climate-Alignment Thematic Fund category.

02/03/2023

Lisa Gordon joins Fulcrum’s Management Board

Lisa Gordon joins Fulcrum at a crucial point in its journey as it plans to enter a significant growth phase.

19/01/2023

Fulcrum appoints Australia head to bolster growth strategy

Fulcrum and its local distribution partner Ironbark announce the appointment of Angus Carson to the role of Product Specialist and Country Head, Fulcrum Australia.

18/10/2022

Fulcrum unveils its new brand look and announces the appointment of Edward Osborne-Fardon as Marketing Director

We are pleased to announce the appointment of Edward Osborne-Fardon as Marketing Director, as well as the delivery of a major refresh of Fulcrum’s brand.

18/07/2022

Fulcrum appoints Tamsin Webster as Chief People Officer

We are pleased to announce the appointment of Tamsin Webster as Chief People Officer.

07/07/2022

Fulcrum appoints Joe Davidson to Managing Partner

We are pleased to announce the news of Joe Davidson becoming the Managing Partner of the firm.